Examining p2pnet’s Sultans of Spin
p2pnet.net news:- Yesterday I published the preliminary results of Sultans of Spin, the p2pnet RIAA poll and after they were online, I emailed a number of people I thought might be interested.
I say ‘preliminary’ because I’m going to make Sultans of Spin public and plan to leave the data up at least until the weekend so they can continue to accumulate.
“Considering P2Pnet’s demographic and the phrasing of some of the questions (to be fair many of them include direct quotes from RIAA materials), it’s not surprising that early results are skewing strongly against the record labels’ organization,” said Eliot Van Buskirk on Wired’s Listening Post before the results so far went online.
“Spreading the word about the survey can only make it more scientific,” he added.
“Over at P2Pnet, Jon has put together a survey about these ‘Sultans of Spin’,” major marco posted on dslreports, quoting Torrentfreak. Still drawing from TF, it went went on, “I must note that the readers of P2Pnet, TorrentFreak and Zeropaid and other filesharing oriented websites are probably not a representative group of respondents for the entire online population, but it will be still interesting to see the results.”
In response to the email I mention in the intro, “Hey, Jon — as much as I support the effort, this seems like a really skewed sample set,” said one response from a very well known on- and offline personality . “You asked a bunch of people who support P2P (generally speaking) if they support P2P and found that they support P2P,” he went on. I’m not identifying him because I don’t have his permission to do so, but his thought represents an attitude I thought would crop up
I emailed back, “fair enough, if that’s your view,” and quoted a line from the intro post to Sultans of Spin which responds to an imagined criticism of the survey. The pretend criticism says of the respondents, “Yeh, well, they’re all p2pnet readers and like you, they’re all biased, and so are the questions” and, “So?” – I say in my supposed answer. “Many of the people who read p2pnet are exactly the kinds of folks the RIAA, et al, are trying to terrorize into becoming compliant consumers and from the responses, the efforts are failing miserably. And you think the polls commissioned by the entertainment and software cartels aren’t skewed?”
In my email to the unidentified personality, “At the end of the day, it’s another point of view from definitely interested parties in an area where points of view are pretty much one-sided and extremely limited,” I state.
He emails back:
… what I’m getting it is that I’m reluctant to promote this … because I think of it as very flawed as a survey, and as something that will be trivial to discredit.
I, too, have an intuitive belief that P2P lawsuits aren’t scaring off file-sharers, but I’m not willing to declare this to be true based on a survey of the kind of people who have self-indentified as activists who also want this to be true.
The majority of file-sharers have no political consciousness; don’t read [his blog] or P2PNet, haven’t heard of Slashdot. The people the RIAA want to scare can’t be reached by putting a poll on your blog. They can only be reached through the kind of credible, randomized sampling techniques employed by real opinion survey outfits.
I’m sorry, this was just not well-thought-through, and not something I can, in good faith, promote …
This is a highly intelligent, extremely influential person (whom I ‘m sure I’ll like if I ever meet him in person : ) whose ideas I genuinely respect in most things.
Sadly, I believe his views may represent those of other people in his position and in effect lend aid and comfort to the enemy. Because until EMI (Britain), Vivendi Universal (France), Sony BMG (Japan and Germany) and Warner Music (US, and the only North American member of the Big 4 Organized Music cartel), start treating their customers with respect and like responsible human beings instead of constantly denigrating them as thieves and criminals, EMI, et al, are the enemy.
Nowhere in the survey do I claim it’s on a par with “randomized” polls of the kind one is used to seeing from the likes of Harris, or IDC or NPD or OTX, or other “real opinion survey outfits,” many of them companies routinely used by the music, movie and software cartels.
But what kind of credibility do “real opinion survey outfits” really have? Many of their supposedly ‘independent’ reports are anything but and include distinctly and very obviously skewed findings. And yet they’re reported as being ‘factual’.
In strong contrast, p2pnet’s Sultans of Spin poll evinces very specific opinions from a very specific group of individuals on matters which directly, dramatically and very specifically affect them, and by extension a large segment of the population around the world. IMHO, rather than detracting from the poll’s validity, this underscores it. On top of that, a ‘real outfit’ would have great difficulty finding, and getting responses from, this very particular set of online citizens.
“The people the RIAA want to scare can’t be reached by putting a poll on your blog,” says the email. “They can only be reached through the kind of credible, randomized sampling techniques employed by real opinion survey outfits.”
“Randomized” means you don’t know who you’re getting. It’s a shotgun approach. From a sample of, let’s say, 838 (the number of responses to Sultans of Spin so far as I write this), there’s an excellent chance only a small portion would be directly concerned and/or involved with file sharing and would have directly relevant views on the RIAA, the principal subject of the p2pnet poll.
That’s bad, not good.
But due to the nature of many of p2pnet’s readers, Sultans of Spin is targeted, reaching parts of a distinct subset of people the RIAA is trying so very hard to influence.
That’s good, not bad.
Just the facts, mam
Several years back TechNewsWorld asked me to contribute a column, which I did for quite a while. I wasn’t paid for it but I thought it was worth the effort because it presented another perspective. I stopped writing it when Sharman Networks and Kazaa ceo Nikki Hemming announced they were suing me for libel. I was a bit preoccupied, at the time, and somehow, never got around to resuming the column. But I wasn’t fired because my views were too extreme, as someone suggested.
In a TechNewsWorld post, I discuss corporate polls and quote Eric Garland, who runs BigChampagne, a well respected research company now partnered with Nielsen in certain areas and which also provides Billboard with online music charts for the Radio Monitor. Its data and statistics are used by entertainment industry companies on all sides of all fences.
Below is a clip from the TechNewsWorld column:
While the music industry is reporting that its ’sue ‘em all’ campaign is dramatically reducing the number of file sharers, and Apple is boasting people downloaded 50 million files from its iTunes online music store in its first year, Big Champagne is reporting that at a conservative estimate, four million people are online at any given moment, happily swapping one BILLION files every month, at the very least.
“We want to be the ‘Just the facts, ma’am’ company says Garland. “It’s an increasingly critical component. You can’t begin to sort out the business and address the problems until you understand the state of things. Behind closed doors, when the focus is on strategy, it’s imperative that you have good data, even if it’s not what you want to hear.
“We’re often told by pros from all sides of the music industry that we deliver a lot of bad news. But we take it as a compliment because that means we’re telling the whole story.”
Wayne Rosso, Blubster’s [at the time] ceo, and the man who used to run Grokster, makes no secret of it. “I always look to Big Champagne’s figures,” he says, as do significant numbers of the people on the other side of the fence – the people who run the Big Five record labels.
So, how reliable are the report and surveys, especially if their focus is online file sharing?
Whether the reports appear to be for or against a particular issue, if there’s an apparent slant in a given direction, it’s almost certainly down to the media reporting it, says Garland, guaranteeing there’s no bias on the part of the researchers and collators who put the reports together.
Despite the fact the odds of being sued by the RIAA (Recording Industry Association of America) for sharing music online are similar to those of winning the lottery, Big Music has succeeded admirably in creating an aura of distinct terror around uploading, downloading and sharing digital music files. And it’s this which means you can’t believe surveys or reports centering on the way music is distributed online unless they’re based on straight data analysis derived from data taken directly from a physical source.
Surveyors investigating alcohol abuse, say, or ‘recreational’ drugs, expect the people they’re surveying to be, well, less than forthright. Now, add p2p file swapping to the list of dodgy subjects.
“It’s very difficult to get reliable information on topics like music file sharing,” Garland told me a week before the Ipsos-Reid came out. “And it’s particularly challenging in a climate of aggressive litigation, proposed legislation and what the RIAA calls ‘education’.
“It’s difficult to extract good data from respondents on these things.”
[NOTE: An Ipsos-Reid report quoted in a Canadian Press story suggested fewer Canadians were downloading than in 2004 than 2000. According to 41% of respondents surveyed online, this was because of lawsuits launched in the US, "which targeted those who share music files on peer-to-peer services".]
Every time we turn on the TV or open a newspaper, we’re reading about ISPs being compelled to identify their clients in connection with copyright infringement prosecutions and, “It doesn’t take a great stretch of the imagination to think: ‘Here I am in my home and these researchers have called me on my home phone, so they know who I am and where I live’,” Garland continues.
“And even assuming researchers’ best efforts to maintain my privacy, and given that they have no interest in identifying me, nonetheles, I may well imagine they could be compelled – just like an ISP – to identify me in conjunction with a civil litigation or, real horror of horrors, a criminal one.”
The recording industry has worked hard to create this climate of terror and it’s their explicit agenda to want people to be disuaded from sharing files out of fear of the consequences that will result if they’re discovered.
“But respondents are in no danger from researchers,” says Garland.
“The critical difference between an ISP and a market research firm is: we researchers take great care to make sure we’re not in possession of anything that could identify someone.
“So when a market researcher calls you when you’re in the middle of dinner, that typically is the result of random digit dialling which actually ensures that although this company has phoned you at home, they’re not actually in possession of your home number, or of other identifying marks.”
However, even given that someone answering questions for a market researchers isn’t afraid of suddenly ending up on the RIAA’s *sue ‘em all* list, the majority will still be less than truthful in their responses, says Garland.
And that’s because in addition to creating the climate of fear, the music industry has also given file sharing an aspect of being somehow unwholesome – of being tainted.
“It’s not unlike getting someone to disclose information about behaviours that are considered offensive, or about drug or recreational drug abuse,” he states. “People are uncomfortable discussing these kinds of things and they’re just as uncomfortable talking about file sharing with a stranger.”
There’s no such thing as bad PR for file sharing, and the music industry knows this, Garland adds.
But against that, he also points out that every time it comes up, it simply introduces the concept to more and more casual users.
In the meanwhile, the surveys are “of tremendous importance to the handful of people who can really be unduly influenced by the information in the surveys – “I’m talking about legislators and executives in the industry.”
Nonetheless everyone – legislators included – should, “employ a healthy dose of skepticism to any reporting of any kind – the media included. Satisfy yourself with the methodology and the agenda of whoever’s reporting the information,” says Garland.
“We’re all pressed for time, but it never hurts to have that little voice of doubt in the back of your mind.”
File sharers, men, women and children alike, are being marginalised in the media and mischaracterised as criminals.
‘Citizen’ news sites and blogs are increasingly becoming accepted as legitimate sources of accurate, unspun news and Sultans of Spin can perhaps be seen as a citizen poll.
It would be useful if an organization such as BigChampagne could pick up the ball and ‘legitimize’ a project of this kind in a way which would satisfy my unidentified email friend quoted earlier, and others who think like him.
p2pnet would certainly be delighted to help in any way it could.
Meanwhile, whether or not Sultans gets a fair hearing stacked against product from “real opinion survey outfits” depends on whether or not people in a position to give it one, do so.
Stay tuned.
Jon Newton – p2pnet
If your Net access is blocked by government restrictions, try Psiphon from the Citizen Lab at thIs the endSurvey: How Did Copyright Infringement Become Equated with Robbery? (of the Net) nigh?zze University of Toronto’s Munk Centre for International Studies. Go here for the official download, here for the p2pnet download, and here for details. And if you’re Chinese and you’re looking for a way to access independent Internet news sources, try Freegate, the DIT program written to help Chinese citizens circumvent web site blocking outside of China. Download it here.
rss feed: http://p2pnet.net/p2p.rss | | Mobile – http://p2pnet.net/index-wml.php | | And use free p2pnet newsfeeds for your site
Tired of being treated like a criminal? They depend on you, not the other way around. Don’t buy their ‘product’. Do bug your local politicians. Use emails, snail-mail, phone calls, faxes, IM, stop them in the street, blog. And if you’re into organizing, organize petitions, organize demonstrations and then turn up on your local political rep’s doorstep, making sure you’ve contacted your local tv/radio station/newspaper in advance. Don’t just complain. Do something!
April 16th, 2007 at 4:00 am
There are many many polls that target the specific group(s) concerned. Over the years I have worked with drug users, homeless people and young people. In all of these jobs I have conducted surveys seeking our clients’ responses to the issues that directly affect them. It is a recognised way of getting good information directly relevant to the situations these groups find themselves in.
My experience is that we get very honest answers from people precisely because we are seen as independent of the statutory authorities, big business, the legal system etc. We respect the anonymity of the participants and take active measures to ensure that this is maintained. We also generally try and build a relationship of trust with the groups. Whilst we may have built up professional relationships with some of the people being surveyed, we have always provided mechanisms for anonymous responses and feedback, something that has helped maintain our integrity and ensure that we have a good reputation amongst the target communities.
All of which seems remarkably similar to the approach you have taken with your poll. I applaud what you’ve done and I think your resposes to the criticisms of your methodology are spot on. Good work and well done!
April 16th, 2007 at 9:32 pm
I very much agree with the sentiments above – this survey never claimed to represent the views of the population at large it is clearly directed to a target audience and is a valid inquiry in its own right. I for one was happy to contribute largely as an act of self expression given the distrust I have of the RIAA sponsored polls and their lack of relevant questions and general failure to capture the information that I wish to express. I think this survey has a strong methodological basis and shouldnt be confused with other surveys in the field that seek to produce different illustrations. I thank you for the opportunity to participate, I would gladly contribute to other such ventures in the future.
April 18th, 2007 at 12:57 am
You are such a hypocrite! Someone else is spinning you say. Look in the mirror!
the only reason you are still online is because your whole endeavour is currently being wholly supported by a US businessman who, for the time being, “prefers” to remain anonymous. You cannot stay in business on your own merit.
For the time being what else do you want to conceal from your readers? Honesty? No spin from you? and ethics my arse!
What agenda does this clandestine US businessman have? You helping him in a lawsuit? You publicising his positions and business? Where are your ethics man?
Do you jump when he says jump? and how high? Which articles is he placing? Which articles is he vetting? What stories are NOT being told because he owns your ass?
You owe it to your readers to be honest? What is more inportant? Your honesty or his money? Why keep his identity a secret?
Too much of a coward to face the music if the anonymous benefactor is exposed?
How do we know its not the RIAA? or a Lawyer?
You are a joke of a journalist if you refuse to disclose the very source of your existence.
And by the way, when we are on the subject of honesty, when you reply, Jon, as you always do, lets not pretend to be a reader defending their hero from a troll. If you want to reply, be man enough to reply in your own name
April 18th, 2007 at 11:07 am
” What agenda does this clandestine US businessman have? You helping him in a lawsuit? You publicising his positions and business? Where are your ethics man? ”
What’s your agenda ?
Who are you, brave one
” Do you jump when he says jump? and how high? Which articles is he placing? Which articles is he vetting? What stories are NOT being told because he owns your ass? ”
Who are you jumping for ?
If what you say is true about THIS site .. why is YOUR
post still here ?
” You owe it to your readers to be honest? What is more inportant? Your honesty or his money? Why keep his identity a secret? ”
Well, why keep YOURS a secret ?
What are YOU afraid of …
” How do we know its not the RIAA? or a Lawyer? ”
How do we know YOU are not the RIAA or a Lawyer ..
actually, that’s redundant. The RIAA members are all
Lawyers.
” And by the way, when we are on the subject of honesty, when you reply, Jon, as you always do, lets not pretend to be a reader defending their hero from a troll. If you want to reply, be man enough to reply in your own name ”
Who are you pretending to be ?
At least we know you enjoy strawmen.
Well, who are you then . Will you do as you ask others to
do ?
Dreddsnik
Boycitt-riaa.com