HD DVD next Betamax?
p2pnet news | Movies:- The format war between HD DVD (Dreamworks, Paramount, Universal {New Line/Warner Bros}) and Blu-ray (Disney, Fox, Lionsgate, MGM, and Sony {New Line/Warner Bros}) has driven hardware prices down rapidly, but consumers are still confused by the split in title availability, says Pali Research analyst Rich Greenfield.
The confusion could, though, end if Warner Bros and New Line opt exclusively for Blu-ray in early 2008, he predicts.
There’d be no change if Warner Bros and New Line continue to release in both next-gen formats, or choose HD DVD exclusively.
A Warner Blu-ray shift will kill off HD DVD within six to nine months, “If Warner Bros. and New Line shift exclusively to Blu-ray in early 2008,” says the Pali post, because, “Universal and Paramount/Dreamworks will not have enough titles to sustain HD DVD for much longer.”
Meanwhile, “Even with a single next-gen format by mid-2008 … we still believe consumer spending on DVD sales will be down about 3% in 2008 compared to 1% in 2007,” says Greenfield, adding:
“A single next-gen format should drive increased consumer interest in next-gen DVD and help the DVD business maintain floor space at mass merchant retailers (such as Wal-Mart, Target, etc ) in 2008/2009.
“Creative success will become increasingly important in 2008, as the halo effect from the growth of the DVD industry had driven profitability across all movie studios. With the DVD ‘halo’ gone and digital distribution still in its infancy, studios need to make profitable movies; catalog will no longer save them (particularly, as we suspect most consumers will not be re-buying their existing catalog in next-gen DVD, soon-to-be-known, simply as Blu-ray).”
Also See:
Pali Research – Next-Gen DVD War Turning Blu (-ray); HD DVD is Next Betamax, December 10, 2007
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December 11th, 2007 at 8:19 am
This is absolutely incorrect that there will be no change if Warner decides to back HD DVD exclusively! One third of all the movies released on Blu-ray are from Warner. Currently there is a near identical amount of title releases on both formats, if Blu-ray lost one third of all there releases by Warner going HD DVD exclusive this would definitely tip the scales in HD DVD’s favor.
December 11th, 2007 at 8:45 am
What a Blu-ray slanted, piece-of-crap article. Do you realize that most people who own stand-alone BR players, own obsolete players? That’s right, most are unable to take advantage of web-enabled content or receive firmware updates. Imagine how pissed blu-ray owners will be when they realize they need to buy a new player. HD DVD has had it right from the beginning. The only edge BR has is aggressive, expensive marketing.
December 11th, 2007 at 8:49 am
I feel sorry for early HD-DVD adopters who got duped into that loosing technology. Debating whether Blue-Ray or HD-DVD is better, is just as pointless as debating whether 30GB or 15GB hard drive is better (or 50GB vs 30GB, or 100GB vs 51GB). Size ALWAYS wins here, since the picture quality is identical (though Blue Ray has the advantage of lossless audio). As a consolation for the HD-DVD owners – at least your players weren’t that expensive, so you don’t need to feel that bad about acquiring a new paper weight…
December 11th, 2007 at 9:02 am
Two things. First off. Please stop comparing this to VHS Betamax because it isn’t the same. Both those devices were marketed and sold as recorders for your television shows. The first betamax players were even built into the TV to integrate and facilitate recordering of shows off your TV. Only once they had a large enough user base did studios start to sell pre-recorded tapes (aka movies as we know them today). So it was the consumers that decided and the studios who followed. Today is the opposite, where neither HD DVD or Blu-ray is a video recorder and the studios decide who to support and hope for the consumers to follow.
Secondly, look at Warner Brothers release of Harry Potter on both Blu-ray and HD DVD. The HD DVD disc has internet connectivity and bonus features that Blu-ray simply doesn’ t have and can’t have with their piece-meal Blu-ray spec (I wonder what Michael Bay thinks of that). Micro transactions through downloadable content is every movie studio’s dream come true. Look where micro transactions have gotten Apple with iTunes and Nintendo with their Wii stores. Both companies are basically printing money with those features. Transformers on HD DVD has already shown how these can be profitable. So…. what is the rationale that Warner Brothers would stop supporting HD DVD? If you want to make hypothetical arguements why don’t you just ask “what would happen if Toshiba stopped supporting HD DVD?” At least then you would have a valid conclusion.
December 11th, 2007 at 9:03 am
“This is absolutely incorrect that there will be no change if Warner decides to back HD DVD exclusively”
You must understand my young padowon, blu also has “DISNEY, FOX, SONY(columbia,lions gate, twisted, and warner). universal and paramount has had not too many “great titles” to go up against these big guns! if, and i say if warner goes “red” it wont change the outcome! it will just prolong the war longer! it`s just like the whole xbox vs. ps3 thing… people thought the 360 could hold up against the ps3- and now they are finding out the ps3 is 50 time better! 2008 will be a big year for sony and the ps3. redmond will fall, and so will hd dvd!
December 11th, 2007 at 9:42 am
This has got the be the worst article i have ever read in my life.
Bogley – When you say that universal has had ‘not to many great titles’ you obviously cant be looking at the same two companies as me. Universal have jaws, jurassic park, the bourne series, ET and back to the future. If warner does go for hd dvd how can you say it wont affect the outcome, a THIRD of all blu ray releases are warner. Why would anyone buy a blu ray player if most of the movies they liked were on hd dvd?
And as for your argument agaisnt the xbox 360, how on earth is the ps3 50 times better??
Look at how many ps3s are sold everything month compared to the Xbox 360 AND the wii, the numbers are pitiful, along with the games on the machine.
December 11th, 2007 at 10:00 am
Rubbish.
Blu-ray is completely dependent on a game console, without PS3 Blu-ray vanished a long time ago.
Even with PS3 Blu-ray is just stacking up sales in the (wrong) game console market.
It’s like the PSP and UMD movie sales.
So what?
HD DVD is the one getting closer and closer to the mainstream adult a/v market.
Soon buying a new DVD player will mean getting a high quality upscaling DVD player starting at $100 that also happens to play HD DVDs well.
Blu-ray are nowhere near that kind of position.
BTW if you import HD DVD offers more movies and more exclusive movies.
December 11th, 2007 at 10:12 am
Reader’s Write: “Size ALWAYS wins here, since the picture quality is identical (though Blue Ray has the advantage of lossless audio). ”
Actually you are very wrong. The HD DVD spec has more MANDATORY lossless audio tracks on each disc compared to Blu-ray. Here is a link of the facts and a comparison. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_high_definition_optical_disc_formats
Also, you’ll notice that every HD DVD player has mandatory internet support and PIP (secondary audio and video decoder). Fact. There are not any features in the Blu-ray spec that HD DVD does not have beaten or better. And since you personally think size is the number one determining factor of HD players (probably because Blu-ray discs hold more and you are a fanboy), you will also see that HD DVD is technically up to 51 gigs in capacity compared to Blu-ray of 50.
December 11th, 2007 at 10:15 am
Remember 12″ video discs back in the 80s? That’s what these formats remind me of. In the end J6P doesn’t care and the “winner” gets a niche market while everyone else moves on. Porn is downloadable, for those of you judging the winner from the from the porn industry. (hint hint hint)
December 11th, 2007 at 10:20 am
I’m still not buying a player in either format until the industry figures out which way this ship is heading. There are too many questions surrounding both players and formats and it’s frustrating to make a wise decision as a consumer.
Hell, for all we know, three years from now there might be a new format that takes the market and makes both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD obsolete.
December 11th, 2007 at 11:00 am
Consumers vote with their movie purchases. HD-DUD is getting killed by Blue-ray across the board. 3:1 in Europe, 9:1 in Japan and Australia, 2:1 in the U.S. The days of HD-DUD are counted…
December 11th, 2007 at 11:03 am
There are other factors as well in HD-DVD’s favor. I’m just stating some points to consider:
a.) name = “HD-DVD” makes an easier marketing and recognizable name, compared to the word “blue-ray” (assuming new consumers who never heard of either word).
b.) cost and affordability = HD-DVD was, and will be again in the future, the first to enter the mega $99.00 pricepoint barrier. For many families on a budget, this means a lot. At 99.00, people will seriously consider replacing their existing systems, and upgrade other components as well (TV /Audio/Accessories/Warranties). This is a good thing for retailers as it give buyers “more play room” with their money.
c.) Walmart and China. Both Walmart and China use HD-DVD (China using a slight variant of HD-DVD), with China’s large market and Walmart’s large reach, this is simply very hard to ignore.
d.) Easier transition to HD-DVD production. HD-DVD has less costs involved to update existing production facilities. More facilities means more production capacity for mass market. In time, this will drive down costs and increase profitability to studios. If a manufacturer/retailer can save even 25 cents per disc sold, when you multiply that by 1 million, that’s a lot of money that can turn into profit.
e.) standard and completed firmware means less uncertainty/compatibility issues when creating or playing content. Blu-ray owners with older standalone players will need to reinvest in newer profile players (to take advantage of movies made to newer blu-ray specifications.).
f.) picture and sound quality are virtually identical on both Blu-ray and HD-DVD. No matter Blu-ray’s transfer rates or audio type used, Blu-Ray does not offer a discernible difference enough for the average user. It’s like mp3 at 256k vs 384k, it gets harder to tell the difference.And people just want to enjoy the movie..cheaply.
g.) blue-ray kinda competes with itself. What happens when a really nice blu-ray game title comes out the same date as a nice blu-ray movie title. If you have a family budget of say 50bucks, and you buy one or the other, it can affect sales of the other. And the longer the time between purchases, the less likelyhood of future purchase for that other item. First day sales for a hot item are very important. HD-DVD is simply a movie player, and does not compete with itself, only with other movies. Bluray competes for games and movies for your hard earned dollar.
h.) ps3=mostly teens and 20 something gamers market, not a typical household market.
Why Disney decided to go this route is anyone’s guess. It’s hard to imagine ps3 owners (which are mostly gamers) buying “cinderella” on a mass scale. Especially when your target market is the same one Walmart caters to, the mass market for families.
Don’t get me wrong, blu-ray is great IF you can afford it, but the fact is, many cannot. And other people simply DO NOT want a game console just to play movies. I am one of them.
cheers
December 11th, 2007 at 11:04 am
I think they’ve PERMANENTLY screwed this up. By the time they get this war figured out something else will be available. Verizon installed fiber optic cable in my neighborhood a few months ago. And you know what that means.
Mainstream consumer interest was low to begin with. Add the format war, DRM, and uninteresting selection and it’s over.
December 11th, 2007 at 11:18 am
ah… so many mixed feelings about the 2 rival formats. It’s always interesting to read everyone’s views on the advantages and disadvantages of both formats. I, however, think that the market is at a stalemate until Warner Bros chooses a format. The author of this article is without a doubt bias against HD DVD. Clearly he/she has “blu-ray-itis”, which is a disease that makes you see all the good stuff about Blu-ray and despise HD-DVD.
December 11th, 2007 at 11:31 am
It means more months of waiting?? lol just kidding, good luck to you, I hope you can get verizon FIOS soon.
I think discs will always have it’s place, it’s just a convenient medium for when you wanna pop a disc in quickly to play.
You can loan a disc to a friend and vice versa, bring it to a party for show. Many people also like the idea of “owning” something tangible.
But I agree once FIOS is a standard household utility, then we can see some revolutions going on there.
December 11th, 2007 at 11:39 am
Screw em both, it’s easier just to buy external firewire hard drives (at 500g to 1TB+) till the next format comes out.
December 11th, 2007 at 11:53 am
What we need is a company that converts Blu-ray to HD DVD or vise versa. If I buy an exclusive title on Blu-Ray and under Fair Usage rights, I can convert that to HD DVD and watch it on my HD DVD player, right? I’d pay $1 to covert a disk
December 11th, 2007 at 11:56 am
I believe that my curent dvd are doing well. Beside since In am boycotiing I am not in hurry to spend a fortune on any of these.
Both format HD-DVD and Blue ray might just dissapear anyway for an open format in the futur.
Sorry MPAA!
December 11th, 2007 at 12:05 pm
Exactly GC328,. Now I am not against anyone owning blue-ray, and I wouldn’t make them feel subhuman for purchasing “the other format”. I’m format neutral. I simply picked what I could afford, and the best bang for the buck right now is HD-DVD. Saving money is never about fanboism or a religious war. And I agree with you in that, if Warner goes blu-ray, it will create an “underground” market for HD-DVD. So where do I go for this $1 disc conversion ?
: )
December 11th, 2007 at 12:18 pm
leaving DRM aside. blu-ray will win there are just that many ps3′s out there (would you buy a hd-player if you already had a blu-ray player?)
blu-ray has updates built in to standard so all comments on the standard changing so people will have to pay for new blu-ray players are just null/void/wrong.
Do people think that we will be paying less if one format wins over the over. The cost of a blu-ray or HD-dvd are less than 5cent a disk in mass production (1million+ copys). So dose anyone believe that the mpaa will pass on savings to the customer. And blu-ray disks are used for PC backups, ps3 games, movies. HD-dvd is just movies so blu-ray allows better for economy’s of scale.
p.s. Hard-disks will win in the end but a physical token e.g dvd etc is preferable
December 11th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
Reader’s Write: “blu-ray will win there are just that many ps3âs out there (would you buy a hd-player if you already had a blu-ray player?)”
This is the very reason why the format war continues. If all the Blu-ray players out there were dedicated players the war would long be over. But they are not, and it isn’t. Reason being, you can’t create a mainstream video format based on a video game console. Already, ~95% of blu-ray players are PS3. As Sony continues to sell more PS3′s this percentage only rises and Blu-ray quickly becomes PS3 DVD. Just because a teenager and all his teenage friends wouldn’t mind buying a video game system to watch movies on, there is no sucessful precedent for this and that is recognized by the industry…hence the format war.
Also, your economy of scale comment doesn’t really make sense either. Because it is reliant on the PS3 it is still largely a proprietary format. Sony knows this and knows that it is dangerous. Do you remember mini disks and “stand alone” mini disk players? Failure and thats why they court so many third party Blu-ray manufacturers to offset this. Is it working? Well since ~95% of Blu-ray players are PS3, the answer is no. So, you are not really achieving an economy of scale there the same way producing UMD movies for the PSP wasn’t economies of scale.
December 11th, 2007 at 1:03 pm
Exactly people. Because of the PS3, Blu ray is winning and it always has. So get over it. Blu Ray is not going anywhere as long as the PS3 is around.
December 11th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
Wow – it’s sad looking at the desperation from the HD-DVD camp. I’d be pissed too if I was duped into buying one of those $100 paper weights.
December 11th, 2007 at 1:20 pm
Who Cares
Both formats suck.
They were created to allow for stricter DRM and thats it.
The quiality is only marginally better for those of us with 30″ TV’s.
and thus not justifing me purchasing either format.
But if I must choose I will go with HD DVD because I hate Sony as much as I hate Apple
December 11th, 2007 at 3:21 pm
“Wow – itâs sad looking at the desperation from the HD-DVD camp. Iâd be pissed too if I was duped into buying one of those $100 paper weights”
Well I’d rather chance on a $99.00 HD-DVD player than a $399.00 PS3 if one of them eventually becomes a paperweight
. You never know which will end up obsolete, so you get the cheapest for lower risk. And as far as Blu-ray, only the PS3 and a small (1 or 2?) existing standalone players can be upgradeable to bd profile 2.0. Remember, Ethernet connectivity was not a required standard for blu-ray early on, so many first gen blue-ray standalones will be forced to buy again (in order to take advantage of bd 2.0 firmware features)
Someone mentioned this important point on another site (which I can’t remember.) But anyways:
“PS3 will cannibalize the sale of blue-ray stand-alones if it is always leading the way”
The statement above is interesting and in a way it makes sense. This makes it hard for other blu-ray manufacturers to compete with Sony at the 299-399 price point. Because why buy a standalone blue-ray for 299-399 when you can buy a Sony PS3 for that price range.
I would rather just have the market wide open, studios can make movies for either format, and let the consumers pick what they need, rather than someone deciding for us. peace!
December 11th, 2007 at 5:49 pm
Optical discs are obsolete. So this bickering over which type is superior is inconsequential.
Hard drives as a portable medium for data transfer has an infinitely greater storage capacity. Furthermore, Solid state and other technologies will soon be inexpensive. Aside from data transfer, what are the uses of these optical discs? oh yes, they are sold with video content on them. So the only real use for them is for the studios to sell their videos. I have an idea, I have this thing called a network; on this network I can download video from external sources and internal (home lan). Why do I need to buy an expensive HD player and HD discs for again?
December 11th, 2007 at 5:55 pm
Everyone is so concerned with which one they should buy (like good little consumers), that they don’t ask the question, “Why do I need a HD player and HD discs?”. Monitors and tvs with a suitable resolution and a dvi connection can play HD without a HD player or HD discs. An inexpensive computer is all that is needed.
December 11th, 2007 at 6:49 pm
Gadgetpig, is that why toshiba is the only manufacturer backing hd dvd while everyone else is behind Blu Ray? pfft
December 11th, 2007 at 6:51 pm
DVD-Audio v. SACD
HD-DVD v. Blu-Ray
Guess I’ll stay with standard CD’s and DVD’s
December 11th, 2007 at 9:39 pm
“Gadgetpig, is that why toshiba is the only manufacturer backing hd dvd while everyone else is behind Blu Ray? pfft”
I’m not concerned with how many manufacturers make it, I’m more concerned with being able to afford a good quality “standalone” player. There’s no doubt the Toshiba A2/A3 is a fine product for what is was made for… simply viewing movies. Just as the PS3 is a fine “combo” product for viewing movies and playing games. It just depends on what you want to use it for. I wouldn’t want to force someone unto HD-DVD, if their intent and preference is the PS3. Just as I hope people don’t force me to buy a PS3, if my only use is to watch movies. Again, I think this whole “blue vs red” has gotten way out of hand. People are being forced to choose sides, when all they want to do is choose movies. So I can understand why people on both sides are feeling uneasy, they don’t want to see support of their format disappear.
We should tell these studios, just make movies for both formats!
As someone else pointed out, if these wars continue, people will just get fed up and go underground to put HD movies on big hard drives.
December 12th, 2007 at 2:51 am
“Well Iâd rather chance on a $99.00 HD-DVD player than a $399.00 PS3 if one of them eventually becomes a paperweight”
well if HD fails you get a paperweight. if blu-ray fails i still have a games console which still plays cd/dvd, can run linux(or any os of your choice), browse the net, stream audio and video from my home network. oh and play ps1/ps2/ps3 games. i think thats still a long way from paperweight.
p.s. you can update the firmware by disk or the free upgrade service at certain electronics stores.
December 12th, 2007 at 6:27 am
Well if I wanted to stream video/run linux and surf, I can do that already on my portable gaming laptop, and I have the freedom of wireless throughout the house. Again, what you do with your PS3 is your business. My personal gaming platform is a PC because I’m a hardcore quake3/quake4/counterstrike source/unreal tournament 2004 fan, and multi-player gaming on PC is easier and usually free. Now my gaming laptop also has HD-DVD, but do I use my laptop to watch movies? Not much, I’d rather have a standalone player. And until Sony comes up with a $99.00 standalone player, blu-ray is not appealing to me yet.
cheers
December 12th, 2007 at 9:31 am
Well, GadgetPig made some good points. I’m am an xbox fan simply because it has all the games I like to play Gears of War, Rainbow Six Vegas, Halo 2, Halo 3, Call of Duty 4, BioShock and the list goes on. Not until recently, the HD DVD addon for the xbox drop in price (actually I got it when Best Buy has a price glitch – HD DVD addon was $150). So like many others, I had to snag it. That’s the main reason I’m hoping HD DVD will win this format war but if it doesn’t then I hope to see some businesses pop up that will convert Blu-Ray titles to HD DVD because I dont mind buying Blu-Ray if I can convert it to HD DVD and watch it on my Xbox. But most likely Microsoft will release a Blu-Ray add-on for the Xbox 360 which many HD-fans (on the xbox) will buy that.
ps: my gamertag is GC328
December 12th, 2007 at 8:58 pm
Sony and Toshiba killed this generation of format when they failed to join up years ago. These formats are the new Laserdiscs. Deal with it, both will always be a niche. By the time a winner is decided (meaning all of the studios are under one roof, which won’t be until 2009 no matter what) a new format will begin gaining hype and once again cause mainstream confusion.
Despite knowing this, I am absolutely loving my HD Harry Potter right now.
If you want to enjoy ALL of your favorite movies in HD, pony up and get both formats fully knowing you’ll have to buy them all again in three years (and then again 5 years after that and again 5 years after that and again 5 years after that).
January 12th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
HD-DVD fanboys “It’ll never happen, Warner wont go Blu-Ray exclusive” you all said back in December “HD-DVD is superior and Warner know that”
Guess what folks, It happened, they announced it.
I’m afraid the PS3 is having a similar effect on Blu-Ray sales as the PS2 did with DVD (albeit on a smaller scale), it was only a matter of time. Warner cannot ignore the fact that 1m PS3 were sold with built in Blu-Ray players. True the PS3 is first and foremost a games machine, but it does make an excellent Blu-Ray player too.
My prediction is that within the next few months Paramount will also switch sides.
January 21st, 2008 at 7:53 am
Captain, as I said earlier, saving money is never about fanboism or a religious war. The question to ask now is where are the sub $199.00 profile 2.0 BD standalone players? It’s been almost 2 years now!
With the recent hd-dvd sales, BDA group is under pressure to match the hd-dvd standalone price at 149.00msrp, or (129 street price).
Because now, the war is converting the existing standard SD marketbase, and curent hd-dvd standalones They will all expect affordability and complete 2.0 profile functionality. Is that unreasonable to ask?