Share the Wealth: Part V
p2pnet news view MPAA | RIAA | P2P:- In a joint (cough) analysis of ‘alleged’ lost revenue due to movie ‘piracy’ by the MPA (Motion Picture Association) and L.E.K Consulting (UK), the total loss of revenue is estimated at 18.2 billion internationally. [For the sake of this article, I'll focus specifically on 2006 in referencing the factual data.]
This includes estimated revenue loss by hard ‘piracy’ (unauthorized physical distribution copies of CDs, DVDs, and Blu-Ray), 62%, and an estimated revenue loss by digital ‘piracy’ (unauthorized digital distribution of copies, aka Internet) 38%.aLet’s break this down shall we?
- International revenue loss comprised of 80% overseas, and 20% US.
- International Hard estimated revenue loss: 9.0272b
- International Digital estimated revenue loss: 2.2568b
- US Hard estimated revenue loss: 5.5328b
- US Digital estimated revenue loss: 1.3832b
Sounds like a lot already, yes?
Well, remember these estimates are magically conjured up by the parties claiming that ‘piracy is devastating the movie industry’.
From here on, I’ll only focus on US numbers because my calculator is already smoldering from attempting to get percentages of numbers in the billions, and not everyone has a calculator that allows that many zeros.
Warner, and Viacom, Fox, Sony, NBC Universal and Disney, the other six members of the Hollywood movie mafia continue to claim the following age groups are the primary culprits, accepting the population census in 2006 was 280, 398,484 (low estimate)
- Ages 16-24 constitute 71% of the pie ( 147,962,923 people)
- Ages 25-29 constitute 11% of the pie ( 30,843,833 people )
- Ages 30-39 constitute 6% (16,823,909)
- Ages 40-49 constitute another 11% (30,843,833)
Wait! Does this mean EVERYONE is a pirate?
Apparently, according to the MPAA.
Demographically, the US age group 20-44 make up 35.4%, and ages 45-65 constitute 24.6% of the population. for a grand total of 48%. (135,239,090).
So let’s revise our numbers again, this time I’ll calculate the ‘pirate’ percentage from this number.
Revised:
(Population statistics do not break down age groups like the MAFIAA does, so lets offset a bit)
Ages ((Ages 5-19 = 20.7%, offset 16-19 = 3.9%) + Ages 20-44 = 35.4%. Therefore 16-44 = 39.3% (110,196,604) of US
Population. With me so far?
So the percentage of ‘pirates’ break down as follows
- Ages 16-24 = (Population X 71%) = 78,239,588
- Ages 25-29 = (Population X 11%) = 12,121,626
- Ages 30-39 = (Population X 6%) = 6,611,796
- Ages 40-49 = what’s left.
As of 2006 there are 212,080,135 internet users in the US, 70.2%
According to my calculations 45.72% of US citizens who have internet access between the ages of 16-49 are ‘pirates’.
That tells me 96,973,010 US citizens are responsible for 3.64 billion in lost revenue. Or 37.53usd loss revenue per US Citizen in the age group 16-49 with internet access.
Lets look at their movie attendance numbers. Reference.
1.47 billion US citizens visited a movie theatre in 2006.
- Ages 12-24 38% = 558,600,000
- Ages 25-39 29% = 426,300,000
Therefore their numbers of attendants compared to the number of ‘pirates’ is a massive 6.59%.
Ironically, the citizens they claim are devastating the movie industry are lining Hollywood pockets with an average of 6-8 visits to the movie theatre a year. Considering the average ticket cost of 20usd per visit, thats 120-160usd/year going directly into the coffers of the MAFIAA from the people they accuse of ‘piracy’.
Hmm… 6.59% ? Where’s the devastation?
So, it seems the average ‘joe’ they claim is a lost sale, (this part is confusing to me) is, according to their numbers, the same ‘joe’ who’s paying to see the same movie in the theatres that he’s alleged to be ‘pirating’.
Odd. Very odd. Is it magic?
If movie theatre revenues for 2006 were 220.5 billion, and alleged losses due to ‘piracy’ are an estimated 14.5 billion, that still represents a profit, even after ‘piracy’ of 206 billion.
But that can’t be right. Because joe saw the movie, and 5-7 others, during the same fiscal year!
And the alleged 14.5 billion representing revenue losses come about only if every, single citizen in the US in the age group demographic with internet access only has ‘pirated’ 1.8 movies!
1.8 movies?!? Are you crazy?!?
On average, I get 10-15 movies a month FOR FREE! And I never have to visit the movie theatre! And I don’t have to wait for the MAFIAA to trickle their corporate
Take Warner Bros. ‘The Dark Knight‘. It cost just 35 million to produce and market, and it is close to generation 1 billion in revenue from sheeple. And they have the fucking balls to call ME a pirate.
Consider all of the above the next time you go see a movie.
Surfer – p2pnet
Share the wealth: Part I
Share the Wealth: Part II
Share the Wealth: Part III
Share the Wealth: Part IV
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News 1130 – , December , 2008
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December 10th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
‘US age group 20-44 make up 35.4%, and ages 45-65 constitute 24.6% of the population. for a grand total of 48%. (135,239,090).’
just to clarify 35.4% + 24.6% = 48% instead of 60%. I offset the demographic to the age group 16-49 and not the represented age group 20-65 in order to compare the same demographic to movie attendance numbers published by the referenced MAFIAA document.
This is how I came up with 48%, for the detail oriented. I understood it, but it doesn’t read that way.
December 10th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
Bottom line is this, THE MPAA IS FULL OF SHIT, and THAT’S THE BOTTOM LINE CAUSE THE WOLVERINE SAYS SO!!! These guys can make up phony demographics all day to make it seem that they are losing money to piracy, when the truth is simply that the movies they have been making with the exception of the rare few that are of any quality and worth seeing are simply CRAP!!. The writers that Hollywood have on staff today couldn’t turn out a good comedy if their lives depended on it. Nor could they do the same for anything new in regards to thrillers or spy movies or even the SCI-FI genre because they simply don’t understand how the viewer’s mind works. Have you noticed that the only movies that seem to make any money are those from the newer stars, and that’s because they are aimed at that demographic. The newest teen movie, TWILIGHT, is aimed at the 13 – 20 age group and features a good looking vampire male lead. People love to watch movies like BATMAN, because we can all imagine ourselves the hero, or the same can be said for Superman, Captain America, Iron Man, etc, etc., and why because these movies give us an escape from the daily dirge of reality.
The majority of the new movies today are total crap and lose money at the box office from day one, so instead of trying to fix the problem and bring out movies that will attract people back to the theatres and their over blown prices for food and drink therein, they simply claim that they are losing money to pirates and they blame everyone. The other reason the movies at the theatres don’t make money is that you can rent a DVD and invite thirty people over to your place to watch it and all it will cost is a couple of pizza’s or Chinese deliveries and you’ve save 600.00 and all it cost was 50.00 so in the end you save 550.00 instead of going to the theatre and spending 20.00 per head to get in, then 20.00 per head for the garbage at the concession stands. So now you’ve spent 600.00 to get in and 600.00 and up for food and drinks for a total of 1200. +, so again it’s cheaper to rent or buy the current movie when it comes out on DVD or Blue-Ray and make a night of it with buddies then go to the theatre and spend almost three times as much for a good night’s fun.