How real is the Swine Flu ‘pandemic’?
p2pnet news view | Off Topic:- Since yesterday I’ve had flu-like symptoms and I feel like hell.
So am I coming down with the much-touted swine-flu pandemic, as it’s being designated by the World health Organization?
A pandemic is an epidemic over a large area.
And I say ‘touted’ because every time I turn on the radio there’s another announcement about it — how health protection shots are in short supply, or are being stockpiled, how hospital staff are being ordered to have anti-A-H1N1 injections whether they like it or not, how one more person has been reported mildly ill but is recovering, how another person has died, but there were other symptoms.
Dire warnings are issued every day about Swine Flu, aka A-H1N1, which appears to have started in Mexico, and British Colombia, where I live, is apparently a swine flu ‘hotspot’.
“British Columbia continues to monitor and respond to the ongoing spread of pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza virus (or human swine flu as it was earlier called),” says the BC Centre for disease control. “The spread of this novel strain of H1N1 flu virus in humans prompted the World Health Organization to raise its global pandemic alert to phase 6, reflecting a full-fledged pandemic of influenza.”
In BC, as of 4:40 am today, there’d been a total of nine confirmed deaths.
Nine?
During the influenza pandemic of 1918-20, “It is estimated that anywhere from 20 to 100 million people were killed worldwide, or the approximate equivalent of one third of the population of Europe, more than double the number killed in World War I,” says the Wikipedia.
In May, US health officials “raised the number of confirmed U.S. swine-flu cases to 244 in 35 states“.
But I haven’t heard of millions of people dying in America, or anywhere else in the world.
Something seems to be going around and certainly people are being affected by it, some of them even dying.
But is it a pandemic? Or did health officials misread this seriousness of ’swine flu’ and are now having to justify the expenditure of hundreds millions of dollars and wasted healthcare resources by continuing to promote it rather than admit they made a mistake?
Just asking.
Meanwhile, I may have the beginnings of a cold, or something similar, but I don’t think I’m about to become another in the handful (relatively speaking) of people with swine flu.
I hope. 
Cheers!
Jon Newton - p2pnet
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win ~ Mahatma Gandhi
October, 2009
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October 21st, 2009 at 9:22 am
24-7-365, there is a LOT of ways to die, life is a pandemic
October 21st, 2009 at 10:33 am
Maybe your just a swine with the flu. Just kidding
October 21st, 2009 at 11:47 am
“And I say ‘touted’ because every time I turn on the radio there’s another announcement about it — how health protection shots are in short supply”
GALACTECO DANGER!!!!!!1111
October 21st, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Jon,
It’s just sensationalized media. No one listens unless you make it sound like the sky is falling.
Think of the housing market discussions last fall, the sky was falling. Think of every climate change discussion, the sky is falling.
Why should A-H1N1 be any different?
People can’t quietly talk about it and have others listen, it has to be made into the biggest event ever otherwise no one cares.
You can see further evidence in movies (more and more action and explosions) or the news.
October 21st, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Take two “anvil’s” and dont call me in the morning !!!
October 21st, 2009 at 12:40 pm
I guess if you wanted to figure out if you’re actually at risk of having this virus, you’d have to ask yourself things like:
1) Have you traveled? Or have others traveled to where you are?
2) Have you been in contact with others that have a high risk of having contacted it?
3) Do you make a siginificant amount of contact with the public environment?
4) What are the odds of getting it in the worst scenario?
etc.
Is the threat real? Is the virus real? Is there really a pandemic?
All of these are questionable. But, I am certain of 2 things here…
- H1N1 is not of natural creation.
Human viruses, swine viruses and bird viruses do not just start interbreeding.
When such a thing occurs, it has to be engineered in a lab.
- Someone wanted either the virus or the threat of it created, or both.
Since it had to be manufactured in a lab, its existence would be proof that it was.
Could it have been released “by accident”? Sure, but that doesn’t take away the fact that someone DID manufacture it. Personally, I think it’s very unlikely, considering the protocols involved. “Incompetence” just seems to be the fasionable excuse of the century on all serious events, anyway. (Boy crying “Wolf!”)? Remember a little while back, Baxter “accidentally” shipped H1N1 prototype vaccines to 18 countries that were found to contain the Avian Flu virus instead. (Some “accident”!)
If it wasn’t created, then the threat alone has been manufactured. Why?
The only possible reason would be to cause mass numbers to start begging for a vaccine.
That makes me extremely suspicious of what would be in such a vaccine.
It certainly wouldn’t be the first time…..
October 21st, 2009 at 2:34 pm
@DA:
Virii do mutate, maybe pharmaceuticals found out, saw the potential, created the stir/fear, established the “need” for their vaccine, but didn’t actually do anything to harm anyone should that bite them in the backside later.
It’s almost like MissionImpossible 2, less Cruise and his long hair, and less the manufactured (I suspect it was a natural mutation just to keep my anxiety down) virii.
If I were a pharma, I would find any and all virii and work on prototypes depending on the risk factor should such a virus get loose. Clearly H1N1 is very contagious which makes it a worthwhile investment. Ebola on the other hand, is so destructive and works so quickly it’s not worth investing in a cure without an actual outbreak.
Just my two cents, and I am not saying your suspicions are wrong.
October 21st, 2009 at 2:48 pm
Its no more dangerous than normal flu… its actually been nicer to us then the normal flu, on a ratio of deaths/cases
Jon, consider yourself lucky. A buddy of mine was really sick last weekend, his mom took him to the doctor and he was diagnosed with H1N1, strep throat, pink eye, and mono…
October 21st, 2009 at 5:05 pm
@DA
Swine flu got started in Mexico on farms where pigs, chickens, and humans are beside each other every day.
@Jon
They have stopped testing people for H1N1. There is no reliable, commercially available test. The best one has a 50% error rate. That is one reason the number of confirmed cases is so low. I have been sick for months with what my doctor thinks could be H1N1 too…… it sucks
@Josh
H1N1 is worse for the young than normal flu. A larger percentage of young people are dying from it than normal flus.
October 21st, 2009 at 8:17 pm
@Robert:
1) Yes, viruses do mutate. They just don’t CROSS-BREED naturally.
2) Ebola was also a manufactured virus. (De-classified now. Google “FBI” + “Ebola” + “Dr. Horowitz”.)
______________________
@EE:
“Swine flu got started in Mexico on farms…”
I’m perfectly aware of what story we were given.
I just don’t buy it, since viruses don’t cross-breed naturally, particularly the 3 involved here.
There’s lots of material on this. Example…
“A Canadian doctor Dr. Ghislaine Lanctot has stated that the H1N1 virus was manufactured, as a deadly flu virus for which there has been very little investigated as to its origin or how 3 viruses could by natural means combine together to form a virus in a pig or a boy visiting Mexico. The doctor goes on to say this one billion dollar expense will benefit the drug manufacture more than people. Scientists have not investigated or provided any solid conclusions on how 3 viruses including one from:
- the 1918 Spanish Flu
- the avian flu virus
- the swine flu virus…”
My question would be, why haven’t we heard anything definitive about H1N1, either to do with symptoms or specific characteristics identified at the lab level, that is used to determine that someone actually has it??! In other words, how does anyone know they’re seeing a case of H1N1 versus a case of any other flu?
October 21st, 2009 at 8:55 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:AntigenicShift_HiRes.png
October 21st, 2009 at 9:18 pm
Also Robert, the plural of virus is viruses. I got nailed on that a long time back.
Cheers!
October 21st, 2009 at 9:27 pm
@EE:
“Antigenetic Shift” is simply a method of TRANSMISSION.
Yes! Transmission occurs between species.
This has nothing to do with a virus having genetic properties of more than one different species.
It’s this genetic cross-breeding I’m referring to that simply doesn’t occur naturally.
H1N1 is reported to contain DNA properties of 3 different species – Pig, Bird, and Human.
Genetic cross-breeding of viruses seems to only occur at the hand of Man.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:52 pm
@DA
Check figure A-3.
When viruses from 2 separate flu strains infect the same cell, the can mix to form a new strain.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:55 pm
Why can’t the plural of virus be virii? So what if certain people who call themselves authorities think they can tell us how to pluralize a word!
It’s OUR language and we’ll use it the way we want.
Besides, if the word “virus” was invented in the 19th century instead of the 20th, the Latin plural for it would have become universal anyway.
October 21st, 2009 at 10:32 pm
@EE:
I understand what a “strain” is.
It is NOT a genetic mutation from that of one species to that from another one or any combination of more than one species.
“Strains” are basically variants of the same species (generally containing similar DNA code).
“Mutation” is a process that produces another strain.
“Antigenetic Shift” is a reaction (only where possible) of a strain to a specific genetic barrier in the target organism, whereby the strain is caused to mutate in order to carry out its attack, sometimes resulting in another strain.
None of this has anything to do with mixing at the genetic level.
“Species” refers to genetic code. The more unique a species is, the more unlikely any variant of virus related to it could share its DNA with it. NOTE: That doesn’t stop it from infecting another species – it just makes it impossible to a certain degree to fuse its DNA and create a virus from a different species.
Clear as mud, isn’t it?
8\
October 21st, 2009 at 11:50 pm
All the influenza’s that donated genetic material are of the same species, Influenzavirus A.
When 2 different strains of Influenzavirus A invade the same cell, they mix on a genetic level. This mixture of DNA can produce a new strain of flu, H1N1, in this case.
It’s not common for all the different types of flu to come together in nature, but it is far from impossible. In this case, the role humans played in its creation was most likely putting all the species on a farm together, not maintaining proper separation, and poor animal/human hygiene.
October 22nd, 2009 at 2:41 am
Look, in most civilized countries, the swine flu is not that dangerous. Our two children came down with it 2 weeks ago, and had a couple days of high fever, heavy sweating, and nausea, and they are both over it after 5 days of moaning that they “feel bad”.
The only problem is in the cases where very young children or children with a weak immune system gets hit, and they can’t cope with the fever.
Bye the way, both my wife and myself (while suffering lack of sleep) did not catch it.
All you need, is a lot of sleep, and a lot of liquids and fruit, and you’ll be okay.
Just my two cents
October 22nd, 2009 at 12:35 pm
@EE:
“When 2 different strains of Influenzavirus A invade the same cell, they mix on a genetic level…”
Says who?
All scholarly reports I’ve been able to dig up seem to state the opposite.
_________________
…”This mixture of DNA can produce a new strain of flu, H1N1, in this case. ”
You’re still confusing “strain” with “genus”.
“Strain” is a variant within the same genus (Ford Taurus vs Mercury Sable – both are “Ford”).
“Genus” is where I’ve been going all along.
“Pig” DNA, for example, doesn’t just naturally marry up with “human” or “bird” DNA.
I’ve been looking for proof that this can happen, but so far, have only found documentation to the contrary. Only lab-induced examples were offered.
In your example, the “new strain” that would result is part of the antigenetic process, described in your link, that allows the virus to transmit to a different species. That is not a new “genetic” creation, but simply another “model”. Infection is not necessarily hampered by species, but the species doesn’t just transform to another species because of infection.
October 22nd, 2009 at 8:38 pm
@DA
Kingdom, Phylum, Class, Order, Family, Genus, Species
These are the categories that we classify all life by.
Note that Genus is above species.
Note that all the flus that contributed to H1N1 are from the genus Influenzavirus A. Note that there is one species in the genus Influenzavirus A known as influenza A virus.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza
So, all the viruses are from the same species. The host species does not affect the virus species. Just because many organisms can get an intestinal hook worm doesn’t mean that a different species of hook worm is needed to infect every organism.
H1N1 is not a species. It is a strain. It was made from several different strains of the same species, influenza A virus.
You seem to think that all flus are different species, they are not. There are only 3 different species of flu, influenza A virus, influenza B virus, and influenza C virus. These are from the genus’ Influenzavirus A, Influenzavirus B and Influenzavirus C. Each genus only has one species. Each species has many different strains.
If you don’t understand figure A-3 from the figure I provided that’s fine, but I am not the one confused.
October 26th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
The best-case scenario is that we are over-prepared and the outbreak is not serious. Plus, a million deaths (the number of attributable deaths during the ‘Hong Kong flu’ in the 60s) is unacceptable in this day and age of global public health communication, advanced surveillance techniques, quarantine/isolation, and vaccination coverage programs.
On a personal note, my wife is a Registered Nurse in an Emergency Department of an inner-city hospital and the large number of “healthy” 20-30 year-olds who have been coming in with severe flu-like symptoms (H1N1) and are needing intubation just to breathe is a bit alarming. Usually the flu is worst in older persons, but with H1N1 this isn’t the case – it is hitting younger people harder. And the number of confirmed cases has been increasing for months now. The number of infections has not peaked anywhere yet.
Thank goodness the H1N1 looks right now like it will pass through the population without being any worse than the regular seasonal flu, but we should all be thankful that our public health agencies are being proactive for once instead of waiting until a potential problem gets out of hand.
November 13th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
The numbers are definitely worse than that now they say 22 million have it and 4000 dead:
http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/11/confusion_between_h1n1_and_swi.php
A great resource is United Healthcare’s presentation on Swine flu. It discusses the symptoms, how to prevent it, and what to do if you have it: http://my.brainshark.com/2009-H1N1-Flu-Swine-Flu-Protecting-Yourself-and-Your-Family-666413744