Asteroid impact odds improve
p2pnet.net OT News:- There’s a 1-in-45 chance that Asteroid 2004 MN4, discovered in June and spotted again last week, will collide with the Earth on April 13, 2029.
And Yes. April 13 is a Friday (as Higgy points out ; )
First calculations suggested there was a 1-in-300 chance of an impact. On December 23, they were 1-in-60, but up-dated figures released today give better odds, if you can call it that.
The calculations, together with the asteroid’s size (some 1312.34 feet, or 400 meters, in diameter) have led NASA’s Near Earth Object Program Office to give the object a ‘2′ on the 0-to-10 Torino Scale of impact risk, the highest-ever rating ever applied to an object since the scale’s introduction several years ago.
This means impact odds, “are unusual enough to merit special monitoring by astronomers, but should not be of public concern,” says NASA, adding, “Further observations are likely to diminish, if not completely eliminate, any impact risk, based on past experience.”
- Impact Probability: 2.2e-02
- 2.200000000% chance of Earth impact
- or 1 in 45 chance
- or 97.80000000% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth
The NASA bookies don’t say what’ll happen if they’re wrong and Asteroid 2004 MN4 hits.
Maybe they’ll wheel Bruce Willis out to fix it, as he did in Armegeddon.
Of course, the movie asteroid was the size of Texas so there was a little more to worry about
And as Higgy says, “Friday the 13th isn’t that bad. Monday the 13th is.”
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See:-
highest-ever – Asteroid Has Slight Impact Risk, NASA, December 26, 2004
December 26th, 2004 at 7:16 pm
im not an astronomer or a physicist, but i believe the maximum impact damage from one that size would be a crater the size of the arizona impact crater.
Of course, that depends on the makeup of the thing (that determines how much mass it loses in atmospheric entry)
itd be interesting if it landed in washington DC. (quick..send invitations to “watch it pass” to the republican party)
December 26th, 2004 at 7:26 pm
“itd be interesting if it landed in washington DC. (quick..send invitations to “watch it pass” to the republican party)”.
You are a blithering idiot.
December 26th, 2004 at 7:33 pm
Run up the plastic debit till 2026, and do not worry about it.
December 26th, 2004 at 9:30 pm
And you sir (or madam) are a concise idiot, straight to the point with no detectable sense of humor. Enjoy what passes for a life.
December 26th, 2004 at 9:40 pm
that was a nice come back. People have forgotten how to have a good laugh. That was funny.
December 26th, 2004 at 10:33 pm
I hope project echelon will pick this chat up for future reference…
December 27th, 2004 at 12:24 am
The crater in Arizona was believed to have been created by a 80-100 meter rock.
They’re saying that this one (if it hit) would equate to approximately 1500 megatons. (depending on composition, etc…).
For comparison, the largest nuclear weapon on the planet is 50 megatons.
December 27th, 2004 at 12:43 am
if you are not a physicist or astronomer then where do you get the facts for your THEORY
December 27th, 2004 at 2:07 am
I always wanted to be caught in bed with another man’s wife and die at the hands of a jealous husband at a ripe old age of 95, but my doctor says there is very little chance of that, with out him going too much into detail. So a fishing trip might be in order, at age 95, when the asteroid is due. But since GW Bush has a direct link to God, so some say and believe, I doubt that there is very little danger to us from any thing from the heavens until it passes Bush approval.
Harold Miracle
PS: should I use my 12 foot boat or rent a large one?
December 27th, 2004 at 2:43 am
This is such a puny asteroid which if it hit earth would most likely hit the Pacific Ocean and provide a few minor waves for the surf boarders in 2029. I won’t put it on my list of worries… Sheeesh !
December 27th, 2004 at 2:45 am
This is such a puny asteroid which if it hit earth would most likely hit the Pacific Ocean and provide a few minor waves for the surf boarders in 2029. I won’t put it on my list of worries… Sheeesh !
December 27th, 2004 at 2:50 am
I too thought it was funny…so people need to relax a little.
December 27th, 2004 at 4:49 am
I’d say a few asteroids have hit you in the head already. 400 m approx = 1360 ft or a big hunk of rock about 4 times bigger than the Houston Astrodome slamming into the ground or ocean (the odds are better for an ocean impact). Momentum also is a factor to be considered. A two ton rock rolling over you will crush you but will leave behind something to put under the headstone. Take that two ton rock and fire it at you at over 750mph and you’ll be just a grease spot.
December 27th, 2004 at 1:54 pm
Meteor crater is a mile wide. The crater from this thing would be closer to 3-5 miles wide, and 500 yards deep.
December 27th, 2004 at 7:32 pm
The potential chances for impact have been upgraded today to 1 in 37, From the http://2004mn4.info page.
December 27th, 2004 at 8:54 pm
You are such a sore loser. I suggest that in case it hits earth, you make sure you position yourself directly underneath it so that you’ll do us all a favor. One less liberal is not that big of a deal!
December 28th, 2004 at 11:06 pm
Wow…you come here to read a bit of cosmic doom and gloom to counter the holiday cheer and you get a side order of sore losers and humour-less republicans….you yankees are funny.
You know what would bind the nation back together? A large, indiscrinate threat from above.
December 28th, 2004 at 11:42 pm
It’s now 0.003800000% ( 1 in 26,000 )
December 28th, 2004 at 11:44 pm
Good on you guys for posting these kind of OT items. I don’t know of another site that does it.
December 29th, 2004 at 8:15 am
More like bind the whole world together.
December 29th, 2004 at 8:17 am
See news from tsunami coming from thailand that even affected the shores of Africa…
December 29th, 2004 at 8:20 am
The tsunami it would generate if ever it hits the Pacific would affect western United States, Japan, northern Australia, New Zealand, Hawaii, Philippines, Indonesia, Oceania, Taiwan, China, etc…
December 29th, 2004 at 10:02 am
god bless Romania
December 29th, 2004 at 3:13 pm
It may be just a number glitch for such a massive difference but as it now stands it’ll miss us by a wide margin.
December 30th, 2004 at 5:28 pm
And what country is Oceania exactly?
April 20th, 2005 at 12:51 am
i personally believe that everyone has put to much trust in science, yes.. it helps us, if the threat is near, destroy the damn thing, or at least disable its impact some how. im hoping that the space program advances, 20 years is alot. i personally dont believe that this.. thing will hit our earth, and i also dont believe that the world will self destruct because of ruling idiots. .. but may i recommend that some of you invest some time into prayer? i believe that it helps, no science there, but pure belief boys and girls. have a good one
Simon
Canada
March 26th, 2006 at 1:34 pm
hi,,,, can you send me your worries?????…. this is my e-mail add
mark_alpha11@yahoo.com