p2pnet.net Feature:- We started running a p2pnet File Share Top Ten last year. Based on statistics from p2p research firm Big Champagne, it lists the most-downloaded mp3s in the US.
Big Champagne’s home page gives a weekly Top Ten list which includes both download and search activity. Our BC FSTT lists only deal only with downloads.
When we posted the first revamped FSTT – without the categories – we had a very specific post asking how the stats can be anything other than merely guesstimates?
See under the chart for the comment, and the answer from Big Champagne ceo Eric Garland.
Week ending January 31
|#1||Nelly||Over And Over (unchanged)||5,827,833|
|#2||Snoop Dogg||Drop it like It’s Hot (unchanged)||5,717,781|
|#3||Mario||Let Me Love You (+ #4)||5,352,982|
|#4||Usher||My Boo (- #3)||5,132,601|
|#5||Trick Daddy||Let’s Go (unchanged)||4,900,034|
|#6||The Game||How We Do (unchanged)||4,819,648|
|#7||Destiny’s Child||Lose My Breath (unchanged)||4,069,550|
|#8||Linkin Park and Jay-Z||Numb/Encore (unchanged)||3,943,144|
|#9||Eminem||Like Toy Soldiers (unchanged)||3,932,340|
|#10||Ludacris||Get Back (new)||3,717,510|
|#1||Nelly||Over And Over (unchanged)||2,629,230|
|#2||Rascal Flatts||Bless The Broken Road (unchanged)||1,018,150|
|#3||Gretchen Wilson||When I Think About Cheating (+ #4)||623,145|
|#4||Brad Paisley||Mud On The Tires (+ #5)||613,161|
|#5||Big & Rich||Holy Water (+ #6)||547,467|
|#6||Keith Urban||You’re My Better Half (+ #7)||420,788|
|#7||LeAnn Rimes||Nothin’ ‘Bout Love Makes Sense||396,394|
|#8||Josh Gracin||Nothing to Lose (+ #10)||359,804|
|#9||Darryl Worley||Awful, Beautiful Life (unchanged)||350,102|
|#10||Kenny Chesney||Anything But Mine (new)||301,869|
|#1||Nelly||Over And Over (unchanged)||4,974,336|
|#2||Usher||My Boo (unchanged)||4,179,043|
|#3||Mario||Let Me Love You (unchanged)||4,143,016|
|#4||Destiny’s Child||Lose My Breath (unchanged)||3,353,001|
|#5||Green Day||Boulevard Of Broken Dreams (unchanged)||3,099,362|
|#6||Kelly Clarkson||Since U Been Gone (+ #9)||2,790,001|
|#7||Maroon 5||She Will Be Loved (- #6)||2,696,864|
|#8||Destiny’s Child||Soldier (unchanged)||2,694,375|
|#9||Green Day||American Idiot (- #7)||2,679,957|
|#10||Jojo||Baby It’s You (new)||2,370,046|
|#1||Snoop Dogg||Drop it like It’s Hot (unchanged)||3,683,972|
|#2||Green Day||Boulevard Of Broken Dreams (unchanged)||3,035,326|
|#3||Linkin Park and Jay-Z||Numb/Encore (unchanged)||2,773,368|
|#4||The Game||How We Do (+ #5)||2,748,979|
|#5||Eminem||Like Toy Soldiers ( – #4)||2,581,829|
|#6||Ludacris||Get Back (unchanged)||2,282,175|
|#7||Bowling for Soup||1985 (unchanged)||1,809,274|
|#8||Gavin Degraw||I Don’t Want To Be (+ #9)||1,507,404|
|#9||Gwen Stefani||What You Waiting For? (- #8)||1,451,968|
|#10||The Killers||Mr Brightside (unchanged)||1,388,759|
|#1||Snoop Dogg||Drop it like It’s Hot (unchanged)||5,221,584|
|#2||Nelly||Over And Over (unchanged)||5,197,753|
|#3||Mario||Let Me Love You (+ #4)||4,969,899|
|#4||Usher||My Boo (- #3)||4,764,211|
|#5||Trick Daddy||Let’s Go (unchanged)||4,533,311|
|#6||The Game||How We Do (unchanged)||4,461,789|
|#7||Destiny’s Child||Lose My Breath (unchanged)||3,730,265|
|#8||Eminem||Like Toy Soldiers (unchanged)||3,505,170|
|#9||Ludacris||Get Back (unchanged)||3,444,191|
|#10||Ja Rule||New York (unchanged)||3,204,975|
How can downloads be any more than guesstimate? Reader’s Write
It [the #1 item) says that Nelly was downloaded 5,954,537 times. That's a very precise figure. It was not rounded to 5.9 or 6 million. What P2P networks did this include anyway? How is it possible to get such a precise figure from such a nebulous, randomized network such as Fasttrack - a network which does not even connect each user to every other peer?
Since downloads on a P2P network take place between multitudes of anonymous peers, how can any system determine the number of downloads taking place without undertaking the impossible task of monitoring every single one of the millions of peers?
Does BigChampagne set up a few supernodes and monitor them for file requests, then extrapolate the results to estimate the total network requests? Is this assuming that the number of requests equals the number of completed downloads? (That would be a rather speculative assumption.) As any P2P user knows, the larger the file, the greater the probability of the transfer getting cancelled, and having to be re-requested afterward to complete it. So this method would tend to give 6 minute songs a higher rating than 3 minute songs due to the increased cancellations.
If using statistical analysis, the methodology could be considered a success if it would get an accuracy of plus or minus 5% or 10% of real-world numbers on a given, open network. But the posted figures suggest an incredible .00001% accuracy.
Although I think that the relative popularity of the members of the 'top ten' list is probably precise enough to create a ranking order, I also think that there is really no accurate way to determine the actual number of downloads on any given P2P network.
Also, the file transfer methods in which downloads are more difficult to monitor - such as IRC, Newsgroups, email, Instant messages, and private servers - these generate a substantial number of shared files. So the actual numbers are anyone's guess.
Here's what Big Champagne ceo Eric Garland had to say >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Good point - the "precise figures" you reference are really by definition a very precise under-representation of the file sharing phenomenon.
There's no way anyone will ever empirically observe "all activity" on p2p (any more than Big Brother will ever get his watchful eye on all of the activity on the Internet itself), for the reasons your Reader so succinctly outlines.
Big Champagne chart reporting is based only on what our company observes on p2p, and so is necessarily under-reporting file sharing activity, as any source is. There is, of course, absolutely no way that anyone can measure file sharing that occurs via email, IM, private servers and so forth.
Again, well done by your reader.
As to Big Champagne's methodology, we're not basing these charts off of search activity, but rather the proliferation of files on public p2p over time, which we measure very accurately. (We also measure search activity and use that information in other contexts, but the charts on p2pnet.net are based on what we observe - it's simply "what we see.") Having said that, what we see is quite a lot! Millions of users sharing billions of files, in fact. Our monitoring technologies collect p2p data in real time, 24/7, and ceaselessly as we've done for more than four years now.
We strongly agree with your reader, who points out that the "actual number" of files transferred on internet using a variety of technologies (IRC, Newsgroups, email, Instant messages, and private servers) is "anybody's guess." So rather than guess at that, we report on public p2p activity among the great, unwashed masses. And we sincerely hope that p2pnet readers enjoy gnashing their teeth at the typical p2p user's bad taste in movies, music - and likely even "business casual" attire, I'd be willing to wager.
If you want even more detail see our Q&A with Garland here.
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