p2pnet - rss feed: DVD war. Betamax-VHS again?
p2p news / p2pnet: Is HD DVD versus Blu-Ray a la the Betamax-VHS war of the early 1980s where only one will emerge triumphant?
Not according to iSuppli’s Chris Crotty who believes the DVD format war will result in stalemate, at least in the short term, says EE Times.
“It’s not as if you can point to one of them and say, ‘this is significantly better, for these reasons’,” the story has Crotty saying.
Both formats, for example, are built on the Advanced Access Content System (AACS), “the new standard for content distribution and digital rights management intended to limit sharing and copying of the next generation of DVDs.
Moreover, some content have said they’ll publish in both formats, and some say they’ll publish in only one, says EE Times.
Also, “unlike the 1980s, when VHS bested Beta, which was considered to be the better technology, through sheer marketing efforts, today’s consumers have access to a great deal more information through the Internet. Once companies bring to market players that support both formats, it will also be less of an issue, he said.”
Meanwhile, according to another EE Times report, a “teardown” analysis shows Toshiba is taking a substantial hit on sales of its new HD DVD player, “in hopes of buying a head start in the battle for the next generation of DVD technology”.
Bill-of-materials (BOM) costs for the company’s HD-A1 HD DVD total an estimated $674, far exceeding the unit’s $499 U.S. retail price. The estimated BOM figure excludes costs for manufacturing, testing, cables, remote control and packaging - costs that could easily push the total cost of each unit to more than $700, iSuppli said.
Its analysis, “suggests that Toshiba is subsidizing the HD-A1 in an attempt to gain early market share over players that use the rival Blu-ray high-definition DVD standard, the firm said,” adds EE Times. “Initial Blu-ray players, which are slated to cost $999 or more, are scheduled for launch by Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., Sony Corp. and others this summer.
“iSuppli’s analysis also revealed that, like many early models, the HD-A1 does not have an especially efficient design, the firm said.”
Also See:
EE Times - Analyst predicts stalemate in next-gen DVD war, May 23, 2006
EE Times - Teardown’ finds Toshiba taking a loss on HD DVD player, June 23, 2006
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June 24th, 2006 at 7:12 pm
Many people who bought Beta VCRs in the late 1970s to early 1980s got a rude awakening when Hollywood movies were no longer available in Beta format. Although Beta was unquestionably the technically superior format, and although there were already millions of Beta VCR players owned by movie-rental patrons, the movie studios backed VHS, and that made all the difference. Every owner of a Beta VCR who wanted to rent new movie releases was then forced to buy a VHS player in addition.
Sony was so pissed at Hollywood’s treachery that they bought their own movie studio (and those titles would presumably not be available on VHS) But by then it was too late, and the VCR format war had already been lost.
We can’t underestimate the influence of politics, salesmanship, and corporate muscle when it comes to establishing a standard. The superior technology often loses. Radial tires might be another good example of a superior technology that was pushed out of the market (at least in North America) and kept out for many decades.
At least these second-generation DVD manufacturers seem to be keenly aware of the importance of forming alliances with the media companies who, by throwing their weight behind one format or another, can significantly affect the outcome of the “format wars”. But unlike the lopsided Beta/VHS contest, each side in the Blue-Ray/HD-DVD war has roughly equal-strength armies supporting it, so it appears that a stalemate is much more likely than a quick victory.
June 24th, 2006 at 8:17 pm
I think that both groups lost the battle.Key reason is the use of CRAP(DRM).The are supporting REAl pirates,so they earn much more from frustrated people.Once majority of them runs into the CRAP and the back-up of disc,they will at least stop buying inferior product…
Klimax
June 26th, 2006 at 6:06 am
In the days of Beta Max/VCR I didn’t buy one till they figured out which format was going to be THE one. Why should I pay for their experiments and problems out of my pocket? I don’t plan to buy either machine until they can decide what it’ll be.
As long as DRM is in the picture I still won’t buy then. Sorry Hollydud, that’s the way it is. I refuse to buy to own on rental options in the license. That’s not the purpose of spending the money to buy it for your own. The cartels can change their business model all they want in this form, it will not bring me to the counter where I see little return for my money. As it is now, it’s a poor product, over priced, and over protected. If the media cartels want my money, they’ll have to get over themselves. As it is now, the cartels smack of mafia style methods, suffer from poor customer relations, and poor service
Otherwise, the boycott remains in place and I ain’t buying.
June 26th, 2006 at 6:08 am
Which format will survive the upcoming format war - HD-DVD or Blu-Ray? If I was a betting man, I’d say neither - and this is why.
Historically speaking, there have been a number of format wars in the electronics industry - some big, some small. But when speaking about the new high definition formats, it would be wrong to compare it to the VHS vs. BETA format war in the videotape realm. In that format war, you were talking about a whole new medium. Before VHS/BETA, there was no such thing as a commercially viable home-video format. The ability to record video for playback, and buy movies for home entertainment, was the new kid on the block and EVERYBODY wanted that ability. And as usually happens, ‘cheap’ wins out in such a format war. Videophile magazines were almost unanimous in their contention that, quality-wise, BETA was the superior format. But since VHS tape/VCR makers could crank out a cheaper product faster, they ruled the roost and won the war.
The best comparison for the HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray format war would be to the older Quadraphonic Stereo format war between Discrete vs. SQ afficionados. Like quadraphonic stereo, home video on disc is not a whole new medium … just an improvement on an existing medium. And, I’m one of those people who bought into both quadraphonic formats … certain (as the industry was) that quadraphonic stereo would be the WAVE OF THE FUTURE. Unfortunately, the initial rollout prices for quadraphonic stereo - not to mention the meager selection of titles - kept the masses away from the marketplace in droves. The average consumer was happy with their existing stereo format equipment and titles and could not be convinced that quadraphonic stereo was ‘worth it’. In that format war, both formats were consigned to oblivion … and the only places you can find such equipment and discs are at garage sales and flea markets.
For the HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray format war, there’s even one far greater impediment to success. The success of either format DEPENDS on the public’s willingness to upgrade their televisions to HD. Without a HD television, neither format will fly. Here’s an interesting industry statistic. 80% of all televisions made today are HD televisions. BUT … 80% of all televisions owned today are not. Do you think the consumer is trying to send a message to electronics manufacturers - and that manufacturers aren’t listening? I certainly think so. The initial rollout prices for HD televisions far exceed the prices of non-HD televisions. As an example, my current TV is a 27′ Curtis-Mathes. To buy it cost me $149 brand new from K-Mart. Take a look around and find me an HD television with similar display dimensions that doesn’t cost at least four or five or ten times as much. You can’t find a cheap one, can you? Add to that the fact that current HD television offerings via cable/satellite scenarios are only niche offerings. The only true HD network, Voom, went out of business last year. HD enthusiasts bemoan its demise, suggesting that Voom was AHEAD of its time. I suggest that there was NO time it would have been ahead of … that the public’s just not that interested.
Closer to home, my ex-wife worked for Matsushita-Kotobuki. They manufacture televisions under several brand names. Last year, convinced that HD would be the WAVE OF THE FUTURE, all production was dedicated to cranking out HD sets. Earlier this year, my ex’s entire plant got laid off. Sure, they were cranking out HD sets quickly and proficiently. And the problem wasn’t that these jobs were sent overseas. Problem? No one was buying them. Stores were returning unsold sets en masse.
There will always be those devotees that suggest HD is on the horizon. And many of those devotees can afford to pay the exorbitant prices to be the first on their block to own HD equipment. But devotees aren’t enough. The industry has to convince Joe & Suzy Consumer … the middle-class masses … that shelling out five to ten times the amount the previously spent for a television is WORTH IT. And they have to do it at a time when income erosion is causing the middle class to dwindle … when medical care costs and gasoline costs (and other costs) are skyrocketing and demanding more work-dollars than ever before.
And THAT’S just to get the HD format itself off the ground. HD-DVD and Blu-Ray come later … AFTER the format takes off. In my opinion this upcoming format war may be a war in which no one shows up in the store to fight it. Or as Shakespeare once said, a lot of ’sound and fury, signifying nothing.’
June 26th, 2006 at 4:09 pm
I’m sure my opinion isn’t too far off most people in that I honestly don’t care what format the next movie format is… but I don’t see the future of movies in this format. Even if blue ray were to become popular for a few years before it fades away I’d want to see my new player handle ‘all’ current formats before I’d spend $900 on anything. DVD/HD-DVD/VCD/CD/Blue-Ray.
But I see a different kind of change, here’s my format idea (and I hereby claim ownership of this idea should it not already be copywritten)!
Let’s be honest, the DVD/VCD/CD format of media is dying - most customers get tired of the storage space used by their movie collections and given the majority of people’s use of p2p in the US and other countries most customers want their movie’s in electronic format (for many reasons).
It’s time for a ‘real’ format shift and not a modification on the current design - wasting yet more customer money on another hardware shift that wont last more than a few years before the one I’m going to outline now.
I want to see flash card’s being made with movies and music on them where I could go to my local retail store or movie rental chain and during checkout the movie rental would be in the form of a SD memory size card. Security would be easy though nothing is perfect and everything has a work-around in an analog sense but… Once you got the card home you would insert it into your media player of choice (including pc’s and car’s) and the player would connect to the net and ask you for the auth key on the movie - after it confirms the key it would associate the movie with your online account and would copy the movie to your local player and auth it though you would be limited to two authorized players. Should I decide to sell or loan my movie to a friend, I would just de-auth my local players and my online account would then de-associate the movie making it completely available for someone else to take it over as theirs and the circle of life continues on a much more durable media. Should the card be damaged I could take it to any retailer who would (for $5) replace the card and link the new serial to the old one instead of transferring rights.
Also I see this moving one step further - where once you’ve associated the movie to your online account, you would be able to play the movie from the internet, should you be away from your home on a trip and wish to watch it from the comfort of your laptop.
Just my 10 cents,
_-Jile-_
June 28th, 2006 at 4:42 am
Nice insight, excellent and well thought out responce. I much agree on several fronts.
I too, was one that bought quadraphonic stuff. Trouble was, other than a few releases, not much was put out in the terms of quad media. Much of what was put out was not of interest to the public as a whole. As a result, it never got off the ground.
With the HD stuff, it’s too dang expensive and to date I haven’t even considered spending when my old reliable tv is working just fine, thank you. Till it hits the junk pile I don’t plan on buying a new one. Even then, I might not. Simply I am not willing to pay the kind of money that is wanted to HD when the media isn’t in place to make it worth it. Even if it was in place, there is the matter of disposable income. The cost of energy has pretty much eaten into that disposable income and going to work, getting food, and other necessities that require you “go” to do it, have removed the disposable out of the equation.
Sometime in the near future, our legislators have deemed that broadcasters will have to go to HD to free up the bandwidth that is now taken by regular airwave tv. Deals are already in the works to sell those bandwidths that are now being used. This part is a done deal. What isn’t a done deal is demonstration that anyone in the public is buying the HD tvs in preparation of this change. Again, the price is too expensive for all but the techno crowd wanting to be the first on the block. Further, just like with the format wars of the next generation of playback units, HD tv formats aren’t yet locked down. The cartels are bound and determined that broadcast flag be part of the picture and when mom and pop public find out they just can’t time shift as they used to, it will become much more visiable to the public what all this copyright wars mean to them on a personal level. Since for the most part it has been kept out of the mainscream media, their in for a shock. This may well be the start of a grassroots movement to finally do something about the out of control government we now have, doing everything for the dollar but not representing the people they are supposed to do.
When the bread and circuses cease, mom and pop ain’t gonna be happy.
June 28th, 2006 at 5:50 pm
n/t
June 28th, 2006 at 6:04 pm
Sure does sound like it.
July 6th, 2006 at 10:31 am
Well, all legislators have done is to agree that freeing up current frequency ranges for wider-bandwidth frequency ranges will allow for digital transmission. Standard definition TV can be broadcast digitally, too. So, just because the newer proposed frequencies can handle HD doesn’t mean they will. Who’s going to broadcast HD programming if no one owns an HD set to watch it on? And if only a niche buys into HD television, even if there was programming, that niche would be split between HD-DVD and BluRay players - marginalizing commercial success for both formats.
Sorry to say this but, economically speaking, I fear the “good old days” are behind us. We’ve got a monster deficit getting worse every day coupled with higher energy costs. And when push comes to shove in the middle-class consumer’s pocketbook, the “fluff” purchases get put on hold. If a consumer has to choose between buying the latest HD movie and filling up his gas tank so he can go to work, the movie ain’t gonna make it.
July 9th, 2006 at 3:08 am
I thought it was because Sony wouldn’t allow porn on ßetamax